This has engendered a recency bias that’s hard to discount. We assume that the next 50 years will be like the last 50 in terms of energy availability, when the data clearly show that it will not. We assume that if oil runs short, we’ll find a substitute, not comprehending that the substitutes have much poorer quality, far lower production rates, and lower energy content. We assume that societal surpluses, like health care, or one person per car, or a complex society sporting ten times the retail space per capita of Europe, are normal. They are not. They are artifacts of an age when energy was insanely cheap. The right time to execute transition is not when the alternatives are cheaper. The right time is before it’s too late, and while it’s still affordable. That time was really 40 years ago. We have less than two years left before things really start getting difficult. What, exactly, are we still waiting for?