The analyst guys are cock-a-hoop. They think that now the great Analyst-Guanxi debate will now - at least sometimes - be resolved in their favour. I think that is optimistic - this sort of “network capitalism” is too entrenched for a few stuff ups to upset. What is required to blow this apart is a collapse of the entire network. Only after the collapse of network capitalism will the system be cleaned up and capital be allocated on the basis of analysis rather than connections. Whilst I am only nominally an Austrian economist - there is a long empirical history that this sort of stuff lasts until it doesn’t - until it has its “Minsky Moment” and only then is it replaced by something more sensible.** So - on the basis that the system really is entirely stuffed up - and a blogger in Australia can find the empirical evidence for that stuff up I am predicting the collapse of the Asian Private Equity business. And Carlyle - the most Guanxi of all firms - will be the centre of that collapse.